American taxpayers may receive some of the biggest tax refunds yet in the 2026 tax season, following President Donald Trump’s passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act earlier this summer.
The Trump administration has promoted the new tax cuts laid out in the OBBBA as many Americans continue to struggle financially amid the president’s tariffs, persistent inflation, and the rising cost of basic necessities.
“We wrapped 12 different bills up into one beautiful bill. That includes no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security for our great seniors,” Trump said in his address to the nation last month. The remarks come as a U.S. territory seeks to break away from America and rejoin Spain.
Continuing his remarks, he said, “Under these cuts, many families will be saving between $11,000 and $20,000 a year, and next spring is projected to be the largest tax refund season of all time.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed the president’s message, saying this month, “2025 is setting the table. The feast and the banquet will be in 2026.”
The comments come as Trump’s approval rating continues to slide, with an average of 55% of Americans disapproving of his handling of the economy, according to a recent RealClearPolitics poll.
Despite federal inflation and unemployment rates remaining elevated, Americans could see a notable boost in cash flow from their tax refunds this year.
How much money will I receive from my tax refunds?
The U.S. House Committee on Ways and Means reported that Americans can expect their tax refunds to increase by an average of $1,000 this year. That could result in an average refund of $4,151 during the 2026 filing season, up from the IRS average of $3,151 in 2024, according to Kiplinger.
In a separate report, the nonpartisan, nonprofit Tax Foundation explained that “taxpayers will see an increase in after-tax incomes worth about 5.4 percent on average” as a result of the federal tax changes included in the OBBBA.
The national average salary in the U.S. in 2025 was $63,795, meaning someone earning that amount would have about $3,444 in disposable income — the portion of income available to invest, save, or spend after federal, state, and withholding taxes, according to the Tax Foundation.
That said, the amount you keep this tax season will vary based on your income level and any deductions you qualify for. The Tax Foundation notes that the bottom 20% of earners will see the smallest gain, with a 2.6% increase in after-tax income, while those in the 60th and 80th income percentiles are expected to see a 6.3% boost in after-tax income.
What are Trump’s new federal tax changes?
The OBBBA tax changes are expected to lower the tax burden for most Americans in 2026. Households will see benefits such as a larger child tax credit, a higher standard deduction, permanent 2017 tax rates, along with no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security.
While many households are looking forward to receiving their tax refunds this year, 15 U.S. Senators have cautioned that the Internal Revenue Service may be unprepared for the upcoming tax season. Their concerns stem from the Trump administration’s widespread staffing cuts and the IRS’s need to revise dozens of federal tax forms to reflect OBBBA changes.
Lawmakers warn that these issues could lead to filing complications and potential delays in tax refunds this year.
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