Kentucky and Tennessee — Forecasters are tracking a gusty but low-end storm system expected to move across southern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee on Thursday after the Storm Prediction Center downgraded the region’s severe weather outlook to a general thunderstorm risk.
Latest forecast graphics show widespread showers with embedded stronger cells, but limited instability and moisture are expected to prevent a widespread severe weather outbreak.
Severe weather risk reduced, but strong gusts still possible
According to the updated outlook, forecasters removed the earlier Level 1 out of 5 severe risk and replaced it with a general thunderstorm designation. Thunderstorms are still expected, but low CAPE values and limited storm moisture should keep most activity below severe levels.
Forecasters note that strong winds aloft near 5,000 feet could mix down to the surface as the system moves through the region.
As a result, wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are likely across parts of southern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee, especially along and ahead of the main line of showers.
Isolated strong storms still possible
While the overall threat has lowered, data suggests isolated stronger storms could briefly develop, mainly in southern Kentucky and central portions of Middle Tennessee.
These storms would be driven more by wind energy and tightening pressure gradients rather than classic instability, allowing a few cells to temporarily intensify.
Forecasters emphasize that widespread severe weather is not expected, though brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning remain possible.
Rain line moves through by afternoon
Model guidance shows a broken line of showers and thunderstorms pushing eastward through southern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee, including the Nashville area.
Rain coverage ranges from scattered to widespread, but overall rainfall intensity should stay moderate.
Colder air follows, possible wintry mix in Kentucky
Behind the system, colder air will arrive Thursday night, bringing a noticeable drop in temperatures.
Forecast data points to a low-end chance of a brief wintry mix on the backside of the system in parts of Kentucky, though no accumulation or travel impacts are currently expected.
What residents should expect
Periods of showers on Thursday
Occasional thunder
Wind gusts up to 35 mph
Cooler temperatures Thursday night
Very low severe storm risk
Residents are encouraged to secure loose outdoor items and stay weather-aware as the rain line moves through.
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