St. Louis, MO – Multiple rounds of heavy rain could drive major rivers toward flood stage across the Missouri–Illinois–Kentucky tri-state region starting March 7, heightening concerns for low-lying communities ahead of St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook issued February 27 and valid March 7-13, a broad zone showing a 60–70% chance of above-normal precipitation spans the South-Central and East-Central U.S. A high risk, greater than 60%, for heavy rainfall from March 7-10 focuses on the Lower Ohio, Tennessee and Middle Mississippi Valleys, placing southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky directly in a prime flood corridor.
Forecast models show weekly rainfall totals may top 3 inches across much of the region, with isolated areas nearing 4 to 5 inches. In the highest-risk zone, three-day totals could exceed 2 inches, raising the threat of flash flooding and swift river rises.
In Missouri, Cape Girardeau and communities along the Mississippi and Meramec rivers may experience climbing water levels. In Illinois, Carbondale and locations near the Big Muddy River could face flooding issues. In Kentucky, Paducah and Louisville lie near the Ohio and Mississippi river confluence, where increased runoff may intensify downstream impacts.
Major highways, including I-55, I-64 and I-24, may see water-covered sections during periods of heavier rain. Saturated ground conditions could further increase runoff into smaller tributaries.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook for March 7-13 indicates a 70–80% chance of above-normal temperatures across much of the region, which may prolong the active weather pattern and boost runoff.
Flooding threats could persist through March 13, with additional river advisories and warnings possible if rainfall amounts trend toward the upper range of projections.
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