(NEXSTAR) – La Niña has officially ended, national forecasters confirmed Thursday, and a powerful El Niño could soon take its place.
Weather models first suggested the possibility of a strong or “super” El Niño last month, and the likelihood has continued to grow. Forecasters now expect El Niño conditions to develop between May and July, strengthening further into the winter months.
By the end of the year, the Climate Prediction Center estimates a roughly 50% chance that El Niño could reach “strong” or “very strong” levels, with similar odds for each outcome.
Super El Niño events remain rare, with only four recorded since 1950. The most recent occurred between 2015 and 2016.
What Are the Impacts of a Super El Niño?
A super El Niño does not automatically lead to extreme storms or dangerous heat waves.
The Climate Prediction Center notes a common misconception: “Stronger events do not always mean bigger weather and climate impacts. Stronger events make it more likely that certain impacts could occur.”
In general, El Niño tends to bring warmer, drier winters to the northern United States, while southern regions often experience wetter and cooler conditions.
If El Niño develops during the summer, as predicted, it could intensify heat and contribute to more frequent or severe heat waves. This follows an already record-breaking spring, during which many areas have seen historic high temperatures.
“So what we understand, knowing that we have this cake that’s been made, the main layer is climate change, the super El Niño is going to be warmth on top of that,” meteorologist Shel Winkley of Climate Central told the Associated Press. “And so what we’ve seen in the American West is likely going to be a story that we see over and over again globally, because we know that El Niño has the power to bring up that global temperature on its own.”
A strong El Niño could also reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami CIMAS, said it could result in “the quietest season since 2015.”
Meanwhile, Colorado State University researchers predict a somewhat below-average hurricane season, forecasting 13 named storms. Of those, about six are expected to become hurricanes, with two reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).
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