The D.C. region is experiencing more “outbreak days” that can produce not just one, but multiple tornadoes, and a meteorologist with the nonprofit Climate Central says climate change is driving this trend.
Shel Winkley, Climate Central’s weather and climate engagement specialist, said that due to the warming climate, “We know that there are now more days that have those ingredients to create thunderstorms and to create severe weather than there were just, say, 50 years ago.”
He added, “The traditional area where we typically find tornadoes, what we know as ‘Tornado Alley’ in the United States, that seems to be shifting further to the east.”
Winkley said the shifting pattern is contributing to the increase in wet, stormy weather the region is experiencing now.
“Outbreak days are the days that we see a big line of storms,” Winkley said.
As those systems move across an area, “we see numerous what we call ‘supercell thunderstorms’ that produce multiple tornadoes in a region,” he added.
He noted that every forecast — including Monday’s, which ultimately overstated the severe weather threat — offers valuable lessons. Schools, businesses and local governments closed early as a precaution based on the predictions, prompting some complaints about the forecasts.
“When we look back at this event, we can look back at, ‘How do we communicate it? What were the graphics that were shared? How can we better prepare people for both timing and the types of weather that will be coming their way?’” Winkley said.
Even though weather forecasts can still turn out to be inaccurate, Winkley said modern climate science is vastly better than it was decades ago.
He said that 50 years ago, “A three-day forecast was OK; a five-day forecast was sketchy. Now, a five-day forecast is really good, a seven-day forecast is OK and a 10-day outlook gives you at least an idea. “
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