Republican worries grow over Tennessee special election that could shrink GOP House majority to the slimmest possible margin
Republicans are sounding the alarm over what was once a low-profile special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, a deep-red seat that former President Trump won by 22 points last year. With the Dec. 2 vote approaching, a new poll showing a razor-thin race has GOP leaders increasingly anxious that an upset could leave their House majority hanging by a single vote.
“I’m very concerned about it,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) told The Post. He noted that low turnout is a major worry, particularly with the off-year election falling right after Thanksgiving. “A lot of the Republicans are out of town. And I worry about them showing up on Election Day.”
A shocking Emerson College/The Hill poll showed Republican nominee Matt Van Epps leading Democrat Aftyn Behn by just 48% to 46% — well within the margin of error. Behn, who some conservatives have nicknamed the “AOC of Tennessee,” has been a polarizing figure, prompting Republicans to intensify their opposition research efforts in the race’s final days.
The stakes have only grown since Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s recent retirement announcement. If Democrats were to take this seat and then win two additional vacancies in upcoming special elections, the GOP majority could shrink to 218–216 — a margin that would leave Republicans unable to afford even a single defection on major votes. With members like Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) frequently breaking with leadership, that scenario has Republicans on edge.
Burchett, who has campaigned with Van Epps, admitted the polling may undercount older, more conservative voters but still stressed that Republicans must not be complacent. “If it’s close, that should be a big enough wake-up call. If [Behn] wins, I think it could be devastating for us.”
Democrats, meanwhile, see signs of opportunity. Vice President Kamala Harris made an unexpected stop in the district earlier this month to campaign for Behn, signaling the party’s belief that the race may be competitive. Democratic strategists argue that even a narrow loss for Behn would still indicate a meaningful overperformance — one that could foreshadow broader Republican struggles in 2026.
Republicans, however, insist they will hold the seat. “Matt Van Epps will be a member of Congress,” NRCC spokesperson Reilly Richardson told The Post, dismissing Democratic optimism.
Van Epps, the former commissioner of Tennessee’s Department of General Services, has used his campaign to highlight Behn’s record and past remarks that have stirred controversy. Critics have resurfaced comments in which she said she “hates” Nashville and described Tennessee as a “racist state,” as well as old social media posts tied to the 2020 protests.
Behn, who has served in the Tennessee state House since 2023, deflected questions about those posts in a recent interview, saying she did not remember them. Republicans argue that her past statements make her “too extreme” for the district.
The seat was previously held by Rep. Mark Green, who won reelection by over 21 points in 2024 before resigning earlier this year. Despite its strong Republican lean, the unexpectedly competitive special election has both parties bracing for an outcome that could reshape control of the House — at least until the midterms.
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